Building the Energy Resilience ASEAN+3 Needs

1. Energy systems across ASEAN+3 (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, plus China, Japan, and Korea) are under increasing strain. Climate shocks are threatening infrastructure and supply. The rapid expansion of AI and digital infrastructure is driving a surge in electricity demand. And geopolitical tensions are adding new volatility to global energy markets.

2. Although the region is more resilient to energy shocks than in the past, these forces are creating new challenges for macroeconomic stability. Climate change is no longer only an environmental issue. It is increasingly testing energy systems – including power generation, fuel supply chains, and electricity networks – with far-reaching effects on the broader economy.

Shock and Resilience: ASEAN+3 and the Conflict in the Middle East

1. The US–Israel military operation against Iran that began on 28 February 2026 has triggered the most significant disruption to global energy markets since 2022. At the time of writing, the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade normally flows – has been effectively closed to commercial shipping. Oil prices have surged well above pre-conflict levels and remain elevated and volatile.

2. For ASEAN+3, which sources over a third of its oil and gas from the Middle East, the exposure is direct. The risks – higher energy import bills, pass-through to inflation, and potentially tighter financial conditions – should not be understated.

3. Based on AMRO’s internal estimates, if oil prices remain elevated at around USD 90 per barrel for the remainder of the year, inflation in the region could increase by an additional 0.7 percentage points, and growth reduced by 0.2 percentage points.

4. But this is not the 1970s. Nor even 2022. ASEAN+3 enters this episode from a position of strength – in its macroeconomic conditions, the policy space available to respond, and in how the structure of its economies has changed.

Malaysia: Leveraging the Investment Upcycle for Durable Growth Amid Geoeconomic Fracturing

1. The Malaysian economy has demonstrated notable resilience despite rising global trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions. Robust electronics exports and AI-related investment have supported growth, reflecting Malaysia’s entrenched position in global semiconductor and electronics value chains and its gains from the ongoing global tech upcycle. 

2. Political stability as well as policy clarity and credibility have reinforced investor confidence. Sustaining this investment momentum will require preserving macroeconomic and financial resilience, deepening domestic capabilities, and strategically positioning Malaysia as a trusted hub amid geoeconomic fracturing.

3. This preliminary assessment follows AMRO’s Annual Consultation Visit to Malaysia from January 26 to February 6, 2026. The mission was led by Lead Economist Kian Heng Peh. AMRO Director/CEO Yasuto Watanabe and Chief Economist Dong He participated in the policy discussions and met with Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) Governor Dato’ Sri Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour and Deputy Minister of Finance Liew Chin Tong.

US will be exempt from global tax deal targeting profits of large multinationals

1. Nearly 150 countries have agreed on a landmark plan to stop large global companies shifting profits to low-tax jurisdictions, but the US will be exempt from the deal, angering tax transparency groups.

2. The plan, finalised by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, excludes large US-based multinational corporations from the 15% global minimum tax after negotiations between the Trump administration and other members of the G7.

Finance can put trade at risk, leaving the global economy 'on the brink' – with developing countries hardest hit

 1. A new UN Trade and Development report says reforms to global financial systems are key to reducing vulnerability, improving predictability and supporting stronger alignment between trade, finance and development.

2. Global growth will slow to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024, as global trade and investment face growing pressure from financial volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, according to UN Trade and Development’s new “Trade and Development Report 2025: On the Brink – Trade, finance and the reshaping of the global economy”. The report shows that shifts in financial markets move global trade almost as strongly as real economic activity, influencing development prospects worldwide.

3. UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan said the findings show how financial conditions increasingly determine the direction of global trade: “Trade is not just a chain of suppliers. It is also a chain of credit lines, payment systems, currency markets and capital flows.”

Malaysia: National Semiconductor Strategy to Secure Global Position

 1. Malaysia is working to strengthen its role in the global semiconductor sector by diversifying supply chains and maintaining investor confidence amid trade uncertainties. The country’s approach is being shaped by the National Semiconductor Strategy (NSS), which aims to enhance resilience in an industry increasingly influenced by geopolitical and economic shifts.

2. The NSS reflects Malaysia’s ambition to position itself, alongside neighbouring economies such as Singapore and Vietnam, as a vital link in the global technology supply chain. The emphasis is on creating a more robust and flexible framework for semiconductor production and trade, moving away from the older reliance on single-sourced operations.

ETSI Launch Positions Malaysia As Regional Semiconductor Hub

 1. Collaborative Research in Engineering, Science & Technology (CREST) and the Human Resource Development Corporation (HRD Corp) have launched the Engineering Talent for Semiconductor Industry (ETSI) Programme, a flagship initiative to strengthen Malaysia’s semiconductor capabilities.

2. The programme, aligned with the National Semiconductor Strategy (NSS) and anchored by the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) and the Ministry of Human Resources (KESUMA), aims to develop a holistic talent pipeline spanning students, graduates, the existing workforce and researchers. It seeks to equip participants with critical skills across the semiconductor value chain to boost R&D, innovation and Malaysia’s competitiveness in the global E&E sector.

3. ETSI includes four key programmes: structured internships for students, job-ready training for graduates and the unemployed, reskilling and upskilling of the current workforce and access to CREST’s Semiconductor Centre of Excellence (CoE) for advanced training and R&D. The programme is designed to nurture homegrown engineers, facilitate knowledge transfer and strengthen industry–academia linkages.

Malaysia Industrial Property Outlook 2025: A Stable Market Driven by Strong Construction Activity & Investor Demand

 1. The industrial property segment continues to be the strongest performer in Malaysia’s real estate market for 2025. Based on NAPIC’s Q1, H1, and Q3 2025 snapshots, the data shows a healthy industrial pipeline, stable demand, and sustained construction activity—even as other sectors like residential and serviced apartments face oversupply challenges.

Global FDI falls, but the digital economy continues to grow – report

1. According to the latest World Investment Report from UNCTAD, global foreign direct investment (FDI) saw an overall increase of 4% in 2024. However, when excluding financial flows through European conduit economies, FDI actually decreased by 11% during the same year.

2. The report also notes the importance of the digital economy, which has grown significantly since 2020, tripling its value to $360bn. The report notes that this growth risks exacerbating inequalities, given that it is highly concentrated in certain countries.

3. While UNCTAD had mentioned the possibility of modest growth in 2025 earlier in the year, it changed its outlook to negative due to high investor uncertainty. It cites “geopolitical tensions and industrial policy goals” as strongly influencing global investment decisions, as well as high borrowing costs and exchange rate volatility.

The Challenges and Outlook for BESS Developments in Malaysia

1. The Malaysian National Grid and power systems face numerous challenges in the coming years with an expected rise in electricity load and the integration of more renewable energy (RE) sources. Specifically, Malaysia has set RE capacity targets of 31 % and 40 % by 2025 and 2035, respectively, which will be primarily supported by solar (PV), mini-hydro and biomass.

Is manufacturing making a comeback in the US?

1. When Rosemary Coates, executive director of the nonprofit Reshoring Institute, worked as a supply chain consultant for large companies in the 1990s and early 2000s, the CEOs would invite her into their offices and say, “Just get me to China.”

2. “‘We know it’s cheaper. Our competitors are doing it. It’s what we should do. Let’s just go to China,’” Coates recounted at the Women in Manufacturing Summit in Chicago on Oct. 13. “There wasn’t a whole lot of thought to it. Some may be financial analysis, but by and large, it was simply the strategy to go forward.” 

3. Cut to the 2012 election, before which then-President Barack Obama and presidential candidate Mitt Romney debated over China’s trade practices and bringing jobs back to the United States, or “China bashing.”

4. “They were both saying, ‘It’s all China’s fault. The economy has all gone downhill because of China,’” Coates said. “This is what I was doing for a living, outsourcing, closing plants and factories in the U.S. and pushing all this manufacturing to China.”

5. The debate then had CEOs talking about the potential for reshoring, asking her, “Is it even possible to bring manufacturing back? Can we do it?”

6. Coates then decided to pivot and focus on helping rebuild, reevaluate and find ways to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. by establishing the Reshoring Institute in 2014.

7. So can manufacturing make a comeback? The answer is yes and no, Coates said.

8. “Brace yourself. [Change is] coming if it isn’t already here,” Coates said. “And you need to learn to be flexible and accept that and look to the future.” 

ASEAN+3 in a Fragmenting World

 1. The rules-based multilateral trading system—long the cornerstone of global economic integration and prosperity—is being challenged by the Trump Administration’s unilateral protectionist policy. Rising protectionism, selective trade measures, and weaponization of tariffs are eroding the foundations of the rules-based global trade order. These developments not only jeopardize the economic gains accumulated over decades of globalization but also threaten the stability and prosperity that open trade has long supported across regions.

2. The growing uncertainty has clouded business confidence and undermined investment decisions. Firms in both advanced and emerging economies are rethinking their long-term investment strategies, delaying or canceling plans and redirecting capital in response to fears of abrupt regulatory shifts or market disruptions. Global supply chains, once optimized for cross-border efficiency, are now being reshaped around redundancy, resilience, and protectionism.

3. Amid this flux, the need for a reliable anchor for global trade has rarely been more urgent.

China’s EVs dominate the world — why not in the US and Canada?

1. China makes more than 70 percent of the world’s electric cars. But it’s hard to find those vehicles in North America. One month before he opened this year’s United Nations climate summit, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva helped open a new mega-factory at the site of a former Ford car manufacturing plant.

2. The new plant, in Brazil’s Camacari, Bahia, is one of many being built around the world by China’s BYD, the world’s largest manufacturer of electric cars. BYD’s presence is also being felt at the ongoing COP30 climate summit in Brazil’s Belem, where it is a cosponsor alongside GWM, another Chinese electric carmaker.

3. The sponsorship is just one of many ways that China’s investments in green technology are being felt at the UN’s top climate meeting, where the Chinese official delegation of 789 people is second only to Brazil’s 3,805.

4. Back in the US, and in neighbouring Canada, trade barriers aimed at punishing Chinese electric vehicles have made them far costlier than what the manufacturers want to sell them for. These tariffs are a legacy of former US President Joe Biden’s administration, and place North America as an outlier at a time when Chinese EVs otherwise dominate the global market.

Tallinn, Estonia named world’s best city for start-ups

1. Tallinn has been named the world’s best city for start-ups in the prestigious Monocle magazine’s 2025 Quality of Life Survey. Making its debut in the rankings, Estonia’s capital received top marks for its advanced digital infrastructure, supportive start-up ecosystem, low cost of living, and inclusive international community, writes Startup Estonia.

How Cargo Insurance is Changing with New Technologies Like AI, IoT, and Geopolitical Influences

 1. The global cargo insurance market reached $22.64 billion in 2024, growing 1.6% from 2023, and is projected to reach $106 billion by 2032 with a 4.1% CAGR. Europe leads with 37.68% market share, while Asia-Pacific grows fastest at 35.15% due to e-commerce and regional trade.

2. Geopolitical and environmental risks such as the Ukraine war, Red Sea disruptions, inflation, and climate-driven disasters (floods) have increased premiums and triggered stricter underwriting.

3. Common coverage includes fire, explosion, collision, storms, piracy, theft, mishandling, and salvage costs. Exclusions are inherent vice, ordinary leakage, delays, war, strikes, and cyber risks unless specifically added. Recent risk shifts include rising fire incidents from lithium batteries and EVs, surging cargo theft, more frequent floods, and cyberattacks like ransomware.

EMS market faces downturn but cautious optimism for 2026

1. According to in4ma’s half-year survey, which gathered input from 224 companies representing 21% of the European EMS market, the first half of 2025 saw a decline of 8.1% compared to the same period last year. When combined with the final quarter of 2024, the result still showed a negative development of 3.1%.

2. Looking ahead, however, respondents indicated slightly more optimism. For the second half of 2025, the survey suggests a modest increase of 0.9%. Overall, when combining 2024 and 2025, the industry remains down by 2.1%.

3. Haass noted that while the forecast for 2026 from the survey currently stands at an 11.9% increase, she believes that figure is overly optimistic:

4. “I’m sure that we will see growth next year, but not a double-digit growth,” she said.

5. At the time of the presentation, in4ma had collected real data from 23% of companies for 2025, showing an overall decline of 3.8%. Haass expects the year to close with a small increase, possibly in the range of 2 to 3 %.

6. Despite the slow first half of 2025, Haass concluded that there is reason for cautious optimism about the remainder of the year and into 2026.

China Still An Attractive FDI Destination

1. The flow of foreign direct investment into China has declined significantly in recent years. Balance-of-payments (BOP) statistics indicate that net FDI inflows plummeted from a peak of $344 billion in 2021 to $51.3 billion in 2023 and further to just $18.6 billion in 2024 — the lowest in three decades.

2. Although this happened amid a global decline in FDIs, the sharp drop has fueled concerns about a potential exodus of foreign capital from China. However, a deeper examination of the data shows the situation is more nuanced than it appears.

3. In contrast to the FDI data in BOP data, utilized FDI, reported by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, paints a more robust picture. Despite declining from its 2022 peak, utilized FDI stood at $163.3 billion in 2023 and $116.2 billion in 2024, significantly exceeding the FDI figure in the BOP data (Figure 1). While BOP foreign direct investment measures net capital flows (inflows minus outflows), utilized FDI focuses on gross capital inflows but excludes reinvested earnings, retained profits and intra-company debt transactions, making it an important complementary measure of foreign investment activity.

Thailand to Ease Foreign Business Ownership Rules

1. Thailand is moving to reform its restrictive foreign investment laws. On April 22, 2025, the Cabinet approved urgent revisions to the Foreign Business Act B.E. 2542 (1999), tasking the Ministry of Commerce with drafting amendments. The decision marks a strategic shift toward a more open and competitive investment landscape, in line with Thailand’s broader economic goals.

WHAT’S CHANGING?
1. Thailand’s Foreign Business Act was enacted in 1999 to replace the Alien Business Act of 1972. The Act outlines sectors where foreign ownership is restricted, such as media, agriculture, retail, services, and natural resources. Under the current law, foreigners are generally capped at 49 percent equity in these industries unless they secure a Foreign Business License, a process often criticized for its vagueness and bureaucracy.

'Europe's Silicon Valley': Britain eyes Oxford-Cambridge as a future tech 'supercluster'

1. In a January speech at a Siemens Healthineers factory outside Oxford, Chancellor Rachel Reeves — Britain’s equivalent of an American treasury secretary — laid out her vision for the region. “This area has the potential to be Europe’s Silicon Valley,” she said. “To make that a reality, we need a systematic approach to attract businesses to come here and to grow here.” She argued it was time to go “further and faster to unlock the potential” of the Oxford-Cambridge growth corridor, which she said could add over $100 billion to the U.K. economy by 2035.

Malaysia’s key US leverage: Electronics, chips, rare earths, gloves and security

 1. Malaysia should leverage its importance in electronics, semiconductors, rare earths, healthcare and security to negotiate tariff relief from the US during the 90-day reprieve, according to Kenanga Research.

2. In a note on Monday, it said Malaysia should leverage its position as a crucial supplier of electronics and semiconductors to the US to secure tariff exemptions.

3. Malaysia makes up 20% of US chip imports. Semiconductors are vital for various US industries, especially automotive and technology. As the US looks to strengthen its supply chains, Malaysia’s role in chip production gives it a strong bargaining position to secure tariff exemptions. Malaysia’s electronics made up 39.9% of its exports in 2024 and play a key role in US tech supply chains. As a stable alternative to China, Malaysia offers “friend-shoring” opportunities.