1. As recent history has consistently demonstrated, there is nothing more certain than uncertainty. A pandemic, geopolitical tensions, trade frictions and even armed conflict have complicated the landscape for global foreign direct investment, leaving business leaders with no clear signals as they set priorities and make critical investment decisions outside their borders.
2. Adding urgency to the matter, there are now signs of a revival in FDI after a couple of years of decline. But the picture that is beginning to sort itself out is distinctly different from the past. Manufacturing shows promising signs of recovery while nearshoring and friendshoring in new markets are becoming stronger trends.
3. At an estimated $1.37 trillion, global FDI flows grew by a modest 3% year-on-year in 2023, according to preliminary figures from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). But the top-line numbers obfuscate an enormously mixed picture beneath the surface.
4. Most strikingly, once a few European conduit economies are removed from the equation, global flows declined by some 18%. In the European Union, for instance, FDI jumped from negative $150 billion in 2022 to positive $141 billion in 2023, according to UNCTAD, but largely on the back of significant swings in Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Excluding these two countries, inflows to the rest of the EU fell 23%. North America saw zero growth, while other countries saw declines. Flows fell by 9% in developing countries to $841 billion.