How Cargo Insurance is Changing with New Technologies Like AI, IoT, and Geopolitical Influences

 1. The global cargo insurance market reached $22.64 billion in 2024, growing 1.6% from 2023, and is projected to reach $106 billion by 2032 with a 4.1% CAGR. Europe leads with 37.68% market share, while Asia-Pacific grows fastest at 35.15% due to e-commerce and regional trade.

2. Geopolitical and environmental risks such as the Ukraine war, Red Sea disruptions, inflation, and climate-driven disasters (floods) have increased premiums and triggered stricter underwriting.

3. Common coverage includes fire, explosion, collision, storms, piracy, theft, mishandling, and salvage costs. Exclusions are inherent vice, ordinary leakage, delays, war, strikes, and cyber risks unless specifically added. Recent risk shifts include rising fire incidents from lithium batteries and EVs, surging cargo theft, more frequent floods, and cyberattacks like ransomware.

EMS market faces downturn but cautious optimism for 2026

1. According to in4ma’s half-year survey, which gathered input from 224 companies representing 21% of the European EMS market, the first half of 2025 saw a decline of 8.1% compared to the same period last year. When combined with the final quarter of 2024, the result still showed a negative development of 3.1%.

2. Looking ahead, however, respondents indicated slightly more optimism. For the second half of 2025, the survey suggests a modest increase of 0.9%. Overall, when combining 2024 and 2025, the industry remains down by 2.1%.

3. Haass noted that while the forecast for 2026 from the survey currently stands at an 11.9% increase, she believes that figure is overly optimistic:

4. “I’m sure that we will see growth next year, but not a double-digit growth,” she said.

5. At the time of the presentation, in4ma had collected real data from 23% of companies for 2025, showing an overall decline of 3.8%. Haass expects the year to close with a small increase, possibly in the range of 2 to 3 %.

6. Despite the slow first half of 2025, Haass concluded that there is reason for cautious optimism about the remainder of the year and into 2026.

China Still An Attractive FDI Destination

1. The flow of foreign direct investment into China has declined significantly in recent years. Balance-of-payments (BOP) statistics indicate that net FDI inflows plummeted from a peak of $344 billion in 2021 to $51.3 billion in 2023 and further to just $18.6 billion in 2024 — the lowest in three decades.

2. Although this happened amid a global decline in FDIs, the sharp drop has fueled concerns about a potential exodus of foreign capital from China. However, a deeper examination of the data shows the situation is more nuanced than it appears.

3. In contrast to the FDI data in BOP data, utilized FDI, reported by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, paints a more robust picture. Despite declining from its 2022 peak, utilized FDI stood at $163.3 billion in 2023 and $116.2 billion in 2024, significantly exceeding the FDI figure in the BOP data (Figure 1). While BOP foreign direct investment measures net capital flows (inflows minus outflows), utilized FDI focuses on gross capital inflows but excludes reinvested earnings, retained profits and intra-company debt transactions, making it an important complementary measure of foreign investment activity.

Thailand to Ease Foreign Business Ownership Rules

1. Thailand is moving to reform its restrictive foreign investment laws. On April 22, 2025, the Cabinet approved urgent revisions to the Foreign Business Act B.E. 2542 (1999), tasking the Ministry of Commerce with drafting amendments. The decision marks a strategic shift toward a more open and competitive investment landscape, in line with Thailand’s broader economic goals.

WHAT’S CHANGING?
1. Thailand’s Foreign Business Act was enacted in 1999 to replace the Alien Business Act of 1972. The Act outlines sectors where foreign ownership is restricted, such as media, agriculture, retail, services, and natural resources. Under the current law, foreigners are generally capped at 49 percent equity in these industries unless they secure a Foreign Business License, a process often criticized for its vagueness and bureaucracy.