How Cargo Insurance is Changing with New Technologies Like AI, IoT, and Geopolitical Influences

 1. The global cargo insurance market reached $22.64 billion in 2024, growing 1.6% from 2023, and is projected to reach $106 billion by 2032 with a 4.1% CAGR. Europe leads with 37.68% market share, while Asia-Pacific grows fastest at 35.15% due to e-commerce and regional trade.

2. Geopolitical and environmental risks such as the Ukraine war, Red Sea disruptions, inflation, and climate-driven disasters (floods) have increased premiums and triggered stricter underwriting.

3. Common coverage includes fire, explosion, collision, storms, piracy, theft, mishandling, and salvage costs. Exclusions are inherent vice, ordinary leakage, delays, war, strikes, and cyber risks unless specifically added. Recent risk shifts include rising fire incidents from lithium batteries and EVs, surging cargo theft, more frequent floods, and cyberattacks like ransomware.

EMS market faces downturn but cautious optimism for 2026

1. According to in4ma’s half-year survey, which gathered input from 224 companies representing 21% of the European EMS market, the first half of 2025 saw a decline of 8.1% compared to the same period last year. When combined with the final quarter of 2024, the result still showed a negative development of 3.1%.

2. Looking ahead, however, respondents indicated slightly more optimism. For the second half of 2025, the survey suggests a modest increase of 0.9%. Overall, when combining 2024 and 2025, the industry remains down by 2.1%.

3. Haass noted that while the forecast for 2026 from the survey currently stands at an 11.9% increase, she believes that figure is overly optimistic:

4. “I’m sure that we will see growth next year, but not a double-digit growth,” she said.

5. At the time of the presentation, in4ma had collected real data from 23% of companies for 2025, showing an overall decline of 3.8%. Haass expects the year to close with a small increase, possibly in the range of 2 to 3 %.

6. Despite the slow first half of 2025, Haass concluded that there is reason for cautious optimism about the remainder of the year and into 2026.